WTW Betting System: How It Works

We at WhatToWager.com don't believe in sure things, locks or can't-lose games. We will never lie to you about having inside information about a football game. We won't make you any guarantees.

What we will do is tell you the games that appear to be the best betting values. Our NFL picks and college football picks are based on historical results and patterns.

So, how does it work?

  • First, we determine what we think the line of a game should be.
  • Then, we compare what we think the line should be to the actual line.
  • If we find a significant deviation between the actual betting odds and our calculated odds, we flag that game as a value. The numerical deviation from the actual line is what we call the edge.

Basically, one team in a given game could be getting more points than it should or giving fewer points than it should.

To calculate what we think the betting line should be, we start with Jeff Sagarin's power ratings. Sagarin has been at this for more than 20 years and we think his system is the most reliable and predictable.

We don't recommend every team with an edge, however. Based on data going back to 2006, here are the games we currently recommend:

  • NFL: Any team with an edge of 3.0 or greater. (55 percent)
  • NFL: Any home team with an edge of 2.5 or greater. (47 percent)
  • College Football: Any team with an edge of 10 or greater. We exclude all Hawaii games because the extreme travel has proven unpredictable. (61 percent)
  • College Basketball (beta, only two seasons of data): Any home dog with an edge of 3.0 or greater. (64 percent)
  • College Basketball (beta, only two seasons of data): Any team with an edge of 3.0 or greater. (53 percent)
  • College Basketball (beta, only two seasons of data): Any team with an edge of 6.0 or greater. (57 percent)
  • College Basketball (beta, only two seasons of data): Any team with an edge of 7.0 or greater. (60 percent)

We know what your thinking: I could figure that out myself. Well, perhaps, but it gets pretty tedious and time-consuming when you are talking about weeding through power ratings and odds for more than 50 games a week. Trust us, we've done it.

Why not just come to WhatToWager.com and let us do the work for you -- for free!